The initial quote for polysilicon has risen sharply, driving up the cost and prices of cell and module prices simultaneously [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

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SMM News on July 10:

Polysilicon

Prices

Currently, preliminary quotations for polysilicon have emerged, with rod-shaped polysilicon intentions ranging from 45-49 yuan/kg and granular polysilicon estimated at 43-46 yuan/kg. Manufacturers are depreciating costs at full capacity, and the overall full cost is higher than previously expected, leading to a significant increase in quotations. The downstream acceptance level remains to be observed.

Production

Polysilicon production in July is expected to approach the 110,000 mt mark, with overall operating sentiment unchanged.

Inventory

Currently, polysilicon inventory still faces significant pressure, with no major changes in inventory levels.

Solar Cell

Prices

The price of high-efficiency PERC182 solar cells (with efficiency of 23.2% and above) is 0.265-0.27 yuan/W. Domestic demand is minimal, with all orders being export orders. The market operating rate is extremely low, and manufacturers start or stop production lines based on orders.

Topcon183N solar cells (with efficiency of 25% and above) are traded at 0.22-0.23 yuan/W; Topcon210RN and 210N are traded at 0.24-0.25 yuan/W. Driven by signals of upstream raw material price increases, the highest quotations for the three sizes have surged to 0.25/0.26/0.26 yuan/W.

HJT30% silver-coated copper (with efficiency of 25% and above) has a mainstream quotation of 0.35-0.36 yuan/W. Prices are under downward pressure due to demand-side constraints. HJT overall direct sales are limited, with integrated manufacturers being self-sufficient.

Production

The global production schedule of Chinese enterprises in July is 53-54 GW, down 3% MoM. Supported by the remaining orders from installation rushes, the overall production cuts are relatively small, and the proportion of 210RN production schedule has increased to over 40% of the total TOPCon production.

Inventory

Inventory pressure began to rise at the beginning of the month, with low order volumes and structural differences in inventory across sizes, where 183N inventory still dominates.

Module

Prices

Recently, a few module manufacturers have raised module prices, mainly due to the impact of upstream polysilicon price increases. The production costs of integrated manufacturers will rise. Under the guidance of anti-cut-throat competition policies, the industry chain has raised market prices. The average price of SMM PV modules, including tax and freight, has increased by 0.3%-1.5%. Distributed Topcon183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.672 yuan/W, 0.693 yuan/W, and 0.672 yuan/W, respectively. Centralized Topcon182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.65 yuan/W and 0.665 yuan/W, respectively.

Production

In July, module production fell by 2% MoM, with production cuts mainly targeting the 18X series modules. Some module manufacturers faced a shortage of new orders and may continue to cut production in July.

Inventory

Currently, most module manufacturers lack new orders, and the market is generally in an inventory buildup cycle.

PV Film

Prices:

PV-grade EVA/POE:

The current price of PV-grade EVA is 9,500-9,750 yuan/mt. POE is traded at 11,000-14,000 yuan/mt.

PV Film:

Currently, the mainstream prices for transparent EVA film with a weight of 420g are 5.04-5.17 yuan/m², for white EVA film with a weight of 420g are 5.54-5.67 yuan/m², for EPE film with a weight of 380g are 4.94-5.02 yuan/m², and for POE film with a weight of 380g are 6.69-6.84 yuan/m².

Production

In July, the production schedule for PV-grade EVA rose by 0.24% MoM, while that for PV film fell by 1.87% MoM.

Inventory

With declining demand in July and as some petrochemical plants undergo maintenance and production adjustments, the pace of inventory buildup will gradually slow down.

Prices

3.2mm Single-layer Coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 18-19 yuan/m², with glass manufacturers' quotes remaining stable this week.

3.2mm Double-layer Coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is 19-20 yuan/m², with glass manufacturers' quotes remaining stable this week.

2.0mm Single-layer Coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is 10.3-10.8 yuan/m², with glass manufacturers' quotes falling this week.

2.0mm Double-layer Coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is 11.3-11.8 yuan/m², with glass manufacturers' quotes falling this week.

Production

This week, domestic glass production continued to decline, with top-tier enterprises still planning cold repairs and blockages.

Inventory

This week, glass inventory levels remained basically stable, with some module manufacturers planning to stock up at low points this month.